With the first half of 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to look forward to what the second half of the year will bring. The first two quarters were packed with change: from the stablecoin frenzy and cuts to the CFPB in the US, to new regulatory crackdowns across Europe and the reversal of Section 1033, reshaping the future of open banking. Meanwhile, banks and fintechs are ramping up their use of AI, navigating new regulatory requirements, and adapting to global momentum around real-time payments and digital identity.
With all of this change, it’s hard to imagine the surprises that the next two quarters will bring. And while I can’t predict all of the surprises, there are five trends that banks and fintechs should not ignore as we move into the second half of the year.
The open banking conversation evolves
In the EU, PSD3 and the Financial Data Access (FIDA) framework are being finalized and the UK is moving forward with Open Banking 2.0 under the Joint Regulatory Oversight Committee (JROC). In contrast, the US is in a period of regulatory uncertainty. The CFPB is pulling back from Section 1033 and JPMorgan revealed to data aggregators that it plans to increase the cost for them to pull consumer data. Banks need to keep a close eye on the evolving conversations around open banking as ripple effects take place across the globe.
AI becomes an arms race in financial services
AI is quickly becoming table stakes for financial services organizations. AI-native fintechs are setting new expectations around service, automation, and personalization. And firms are no longer stopping at chatbots and GenAI technologies. Instead, banks across Europe, the US, and Asia are increasingly integrating agentic AI, and even hiring AI agents for tasks like underwriting, compliance, and customer service. Expect the second half of the year to bring a continued rise in AI literacy programs and internal tooling as firms upskill teams and reduce reliance on third-party vendors by turning instead to agentic AI.
Tokenization takes over
In the first half of 2025, we saw major pilots for tokenized deposits, treasuries, and real-world assets (RWAs). In the latter half of the year, we can expect to see real world implementations, particularly in wholesale payments, interbank settlement, and liquidity management. Regulatory clarity is also beginning to transpire. Jurisdictions like the EU, Hong Kong, and Singapore are starting to define legal frameworks for tokenized financial products. This may prompt US regulators to clarify the treatment of tokenized deposits and securities.
Identity verification becomes a battleground
With rising fraud, easy-to-create deepfakes, and an increase in embedded finance, financial institutions are shifting from one-time identity checks to continuous, context-aware identity verification. The second half of this year will bring increased adoption of reusable digital IDs, decentralized identity frameworks (DID), and advanced biometrics tied to behavioral signals. As always, the challenge will be balancing a low-friction user experience with high security.
Real-time payments reshape expectations
FedNow is gaining traction in the US, ISO 20022 began rolling out earlier this week, and stablecoin-powered cross-border projects are on the rise. All of these aspects, plus an increase in stablecoin adoption are making real-time payments the norm and are raising customer expectations. Banks that can’t meet those expectations risk losing ground to more nimble players.